Josh Marshall:
"... The problem is that the things most in need of reforming are the only things keeping Sanders in the race. That may sound like a provocation. But it's actually true!
... In any case, that leaves us with the big three reforms. But here's the problem: the biggest beneficiary of all three of these 'problems' is actually Bernie Sanders. Sanders' wins have been concentrated overwhelmingly in caucus states. Sanders has also done a better job in the dark delegate hunt. He seems to have picked up or is in the process of picking up more delegates in Nevada, even though he 'lost'. And he seems to be in the process of doing the same thing in Missouri.
But what about super delegates? It's with super delegates at least that Clinton is gaining an unfair advantage, right?
Well, not exactly. Clinton still does have overwhelming support among super delegates. But they don't even count as long as she secures a majority of pledged delegates. And she has a clear lead with pledged delegates. So even though super delegates support Clinton, her current lead does not depend on them at all.
But here's the thing: People may disagree about whether Sanders still has a realistic chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. What he almost certainly doesn't have a chance of doing is winning a majority of pledged delegates. The current plan, explicitly stated repeatedly by Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver, is to either to prevent Clinton from winning a majority of pledged delegates or actually win a plurality of pledged delegates and then make the case to super delegates that Sanders should be the nominee. The argument isn't crazy: it would simply be that he's a stronger candidate and that he had more momentum, was getting stronger as the primary process went on. (Indeed, that would definitely be true if Sanders were able to catch up in this way, in the way I just described.)
In any case, the relevant point is that Sanders current strategy explicit rests on winning the nomination by convincing the majority of super delegates to back him.
Now, none of this is wrong. Sanders is simply playing by the rules as they exist, as he should. Barack Obama got a critical boost from caucuses in 2008 too. You can't change the rules mid-way through. Everyone knew what the rules were going in and had the ability to craft a strategy to play to them. But the simple fact is this: there are a number of reforms that would help make the nomination process more fair, democratic and transparent on the Democratic side. They all fix parts of the process that are currently helping Bernie Sanders."
I was anticipating this post. Maybe 'cause I check TPM too often... It's an overlooked point on social media though; everyone on FaceBook is convinced Clinton benefits from the undemocratic structures of the Democratic primary even though at this point the opposite is true.
"... The problem is that the things most in need of reforming are the only things keeping Sanders in the race. That may sound like a provocation. But it's actually true!
... In any case, that leaves us with the big three reforms. But here's the problem: the biggest beneficiary of all three of these 'problems' is actually Bernie Sanders. Sanders' wins have been concentrated overwhelmingly in caucus states. Sanders has also done a better job in the dark delegate hunt. He seems to have picked up or is in the process of picking up more delegates in Nevada, even though he 'lost'. And he seems to be in the process of doing the same thing in Missouri.
But what about super delegates? It's with super delegates at least that Clinton is gaining an unfair advantage, right?
Well, not exactly. Clinton still does have overwhelming support among super delegates. But they don't even count as long as she secures a majority of pledged delegates. And she has a clear lead with pledged delegates. So even though super delegates support Clinton, her current lead does not depend on them at all.
But here's the thing: People may disagree about whether Sanders still has a realistic chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. What he almost certainly doesn't have a chance of doing is winning a majority of pledged delegates. The current plan, explicitly stated repeatedly by Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver, is to either to prevent Clinton from winning a majority of pledged delegates or actually win a plurality of pledged delegates and then make the case to super delegates that Sanders should be the nominee. The argument isn't crazy: it would simply be that he's a stronger candidate and that he had more momentum, was getting stronger as the primary process went on. (Indeed, that would definitely be true if Sanders were able to catch up in this way, in the way I just described.)
In any case, the relevant point is that Sanders current strategy explicit rests on winning the nomination by convincing the majority of super delegates to back him.
Now, none of this is wrong. Sanders is simply playing by the rules as they exist, as he should. Barack Obama got a critical boost from caucuses in 2008 too. You can't change the rules mid-way through. Everyone knew what the rules were going in and had the ability to craft a strategy to play to them. But the simple fact is this: there are a number of reforms that would help make the nomination process more fair, democratic and transparent on the Democratic side. They all fix parts of the process that are currently helping Bernie Sanders."
I was anticipating this post. Maybe 'cause I check TPM too often... It's an overlooked point on social media though; everyone on FaceBook is convinced Clinton benefits from the undemocratic structures of the Democratic primary even though at this point the opposite is true.
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